Yohe: Predictions for the 2023-24 NHL season, with 10 for the Penguins (2024)

It wouldn’t be hockey season if I didn’t offer some predictions that are bound for utter failure.

But I won’t deprive you, so here are my thoughts on the upcoming NHL season.

Awards

Hart Trophy: Connor McDavid, Oilers

Sorry for the boringpick. But come on. If he’s healthy, it’s his. (If he’s not healthy, Sidney Crosby at 75-1 is an incrediblevalue bet.)

Art Ross Trophy: Connor McDavid, Oilers

He has no competition if he stays healthy. If he doesn’t stay healthy, keep Nate MacKinnon in mind. I think he’s going to have a monster season.

Norris Trophy: Cale Makar, Avalanche

The cream will rise. He’s the best defenseman in hockey.

Vezina Trophy: Igor Shesterkin, Rangers

He’s pretty good. But he’ll get competition from New York City’s other team.

NHL standings predictions

Atlantic Division

1. Toronto Maple Leafs
2. Florida Panthers
3. Ottawa Senators
4. Boston Bruins
5. Tampa Bay Lightning
6. Buffalo Sabres
7. Detroit Red Wings
8. Montreal Canadiens

Thoughts: This division is impossible to predict. Buffalo could make the playoffs and I wouldn’t be shocked. Tampa Bay could make a Cup run and I wouldn’t be shocked. But I think Toronto is the best regular-season team in this division, I don’t think Florida was a fluke, I’m big on Ottawa this season and I think the Bruins could be in store for a significant fall.

Metropolitan Division

1. Carolina Hurricanes
2. New Jersey Devils
3. New York Rangers
4. Pittsburgh Penguins
5. New York Islanders
6. Washington Capitals
7. Columbus Blue Jackets
8. Philadelphia Flyers

Thoughts: Carolina and New Jersey are going to finish with around 110 points. The Rangers are impressive on paper. So are the Penguins. I always pick the Islanders to miss the playoffs, and they never do. Washington isn’t as bad as some think, but I really don’t like the blue line in D.C. Columbus and Philadelphia aren’t contenders for the worst team in the league, but there’s nothing special there.

Additional Penguins thought: I think they’re a playoff team. I really do. Of course, I thought this last season, too. Still. this roster is so much deeper. They can withstand an injury or two. They could finish even higher in the division, truth be told. But I don’t think they’re all that interested in where they finish, so long as they qualify for the postseason.

Central Division

1. Colorado Avalanche
2. Dallas Stars
3. Minnesota Wild
4. Winnipeg Jets
5. Arizona Coyotes
6. Nashville Predators
7. Chicago Blackhawks
8. St. Louis Blues

Thoughts: I’m always bullish on the Avs. Dallas is terrific. Minnesota and Winnipeg will sneak into the playoffs. Arizona is better than you think.

Pacific Division

1. Edmonton Oilers
2. Vegas Golden Knights
3. Los Angeles Kings
4. Seattle Kraken
5. Calgary Flames
6. Vancouver Canucks
7. Anaheim Ducks
8. San Jose Sharks

Thoughts: Edmonton was made for the regular season. The Knights remain scary good. I think the Kings are getting better every season. Don’t forget about the Kraken. I don’t like the Flames this year. Vancouver could surprise but is still flawed. Rough times in California for non-Kings fans.

Playoff tree predictions

Eastern Conference

First round

Pittsburgh over Toronto in 7
Florida over Ottawa in 6
Carolina over NY Islanders in 5
New Jersey over NY Rangers in 6

Second round

Florida over Pittsburgh in 7
New Jersey over Carolina in 6

Conference final

New Jersey over Florida in 6

Western Conference

First round

Colorado over Winnipeg in 4
Dallas over Minnesota in 6
Edmonton over Seattle in 7
Vegas over Los Angeles in 6

Second round

Colorado over Dallas in 7
Edmonton over Vegas in 6

Conference final

Colorado over Edmonton in 6

Stanley Cup Final

Colorado over New Jersey in 7

Thoughts: Yes, I have Kyle Dubas and the Penguins going into Toronto and winning Game 7 in the first round. How hilarious would that be?

The East is going to be incredible this season. It’s deep. It’s talented. It’s going to be ferocious.

But I’m still taking the Avs to win it all. Look at that roster. If they stay healthy, they’re still the team to beat.

10 Penguins predictions

1. Crosby will tie Wayne Gretzky by producing his 19th straight season with more than a point per game. It’s one of the great records in NHL history and showcases his remarkable longevity. My prediction for Crosby this season: 75 games, 34 goals, 60 assists, 94 points.

2. Erik Karlsson won’t make his way to 100 points again, but he’ll be a point-per-game player in Pittsburgh. What he did in San Jose last season was outrageous. I can’t imagine him hitting 100 points again, though we shouldn’t rule it out. I predict Karlsson will hit 85 points.

3. Tristan Jarry’s stats probably won’t reflect it, but he’s going to have a bounce-back season. The problem for Jarry is that these Penguins are all offense, all the time. They’re not going to be a great defensive team. Get ready for 6-5 games. Thus, people will initially look at Jarry’s numbers and think he’s having a pedestrian season. But I bet he’ll be much better than pedestrian. He’s healthy. He seems quite hungry. We saw that from Jarry two years ago and he enjoyed the best season of his career.

4. Speaking of bouncebacks, you’re going to like Alex Nedeljkovic. He’s got talent. He’s got personality. And I think he’s found a home in Pittsburgh. He’ll potentially be a more reliable backup than Casey DeSmith.

5. Drew O’Connor will score 15-plus goals this season. It’s time. I’ve been a fan of this guy for quite some time. He’s brimming with confidence and has a legitimate amount of talent. He’s going to come into his own.

6. Jeff Carter will be a healthy scratch in some games. He’s actually had a good camp and he might be effective in a lesser role. But he doesn’t need to be playing 82 games at his age. He just doesn’t. The Penguins are aware of this.

7. Jansen Harkins is going to become a regular in the bottom six. Some players need a change of scenery. He’s one of those players. He has a pedigree and he can really play.

8. Ryan Graves is going to make the Penguins so much better. He’s a substantial upgrade over Brian Dumoulin and he will chip in some offense as well. What a great signing.

9. The Penguins will be dominant in three-on-three play because Karlsson or Kris Letang will be on the ice almost at all times.

10. Dubas will make a major, aggressive trade at some point this season to give the Penguins a real chance to make a playoff run.

(Top photo of Erik Karlsson: Jeanine Leech / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Josh Yohe is a senior writer for The Athletic covering the Pittsburgh Penguins. Josh joined The Athletic in 2017 after covering the Penguins for a decade, first for the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review and then for DKPittsburghSports.com. Follow Josh on Twitter @JoshYohe_PGH