The Current 10-Year Treasury Yield Is Above 4%. Here’s Why It Matters - NerdWallet (2024)

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The 10-year Treasury yield (ticker: US10Y) describes what 10-year U.S. Treasury notes will pay over 10 years if bought today. Also known as T-notes, Treasury notes are a low-risk fixed-income investment that pays a set rate of interest every six months.

The 10-year Treasury is frequently used in the news as a barometer or proxy for economic factors, including investor sentiment and mortgage rates. The 10-year Treasury yield is currently around 4%.

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What is the 10-year Treasury?

Considered one of the lowest-risk investments on the U.S. market, 10-year Treasurys are a “risk-free” benchmark against which other investments and debt are compared. (Three-month Treasury bills are another.)

While no investment is ever completely risk-free, Treasury notes come close if held to maturity. As a result, some investors and analysts look to demand for T-notes as one way to assess investor confidence in the economy.

Treasury notes are one of four main types of U.S. government debt securities. The others are Treasury bills, Treasury bonds and Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS). They vary in their duration, interest payments and yields.

🤓Nerdy Tip

The “10 year Treasury” describes what 10-year U.S. Treasury notes will pay over 10 years if bought today. The 10-year yield is currently around 4%, following a recent high of 5.2% on October 29, 2023. Learn more about these “risk-free” Treasury or T-notes here.

What is the 10-year treasury yield today?

Here is today's 10-year Treasury note yield, alongside other Treasury securities for reference.

Rates are sourced from Google Finance and may be delayed. Data is solely for informational purposes, not for trading.

» Learn more: What are Treasurys? Government bonds vs. notes vs. bills

Key terms

Competitive bid

When a bidder specifies the conditions of the Treasury (such as rate and yield) that they’re willing to accept.

Non-competitive bid

When a bidder agrees to accept whatever conditions, such as rate and yield, are established at the auction.

Price

The face value of a Treasury note, or what you pay to loan the government money.

Treasury bill

The shortest-term U.S. debt security, Treasury bills mature in less than a year. They’re also known as a zero-coupon bond. T-bills do not pay interest like other Treasurys, and instead are sold at a discount. The difference between the face value of the T-bill and its discount rate is the “interest earned.”

Treasury bond

A long-term U.S. debt security maturing in 20 or 30 years.

Treasury note

A type of U.S. debt security maturing in 2, 3, 5, 7 or 10 years.

US10Y

Market ticker for the 10-year Treasury yield.

Yield

The interest rate the U.S. government pays on its debt, or how much you can earn from investing in a Treasury note.

Price vs. yield

Treasury prices and yields tend to move in opposite directions, and are affected by supply and demand and the health of the economy. The purchase price or face value of a Treasury note is what you pay to buy it. The T-note’s yield is the interest rate you earn for loaning the government money.

Treasury notes are sold at auction through a bidding process. The Treasury first accepts any noncompetitive bids, or bids from investors who accept the current T-note rate and yield. Then, the Treasury accepts the highest competitive bid.

If demand for Treasury notes is high, they may sell for more than their face value. If demand is low, on the other hand, Treasurys can sell for less than their face value.

The Treasury may raise the yield of newly issued 10-year notes if the price of existing 10-year notes starts to fall on secondary bond markets (because of market forces like inflation). If there's high inflation, for example, the potentially higher yield of newly issued 10-year notes will make them more attractive than previously issued T-notes.

This effect is also known as interest rate risk and is most relevant for investors trying to sell T-notes on a secondary market. If held for their full duration, Treasury notes still pay their coupon payments and principal in full. But if a T-note-holder were to sell early, they may have to discount the price.

Longer-term investments tend to offer higher yields to offset any potential price impact from interest rate or other risks.

Why is the 10-year Treasury yield important?

As one of the lowest-risk investments on the market, the 10-year Treasury and its yield are important for several reasons. First, the 10-year Treasury is a baseline against which the risk of other investments is assessed.

Treasury rates also affect interest rates for other types of consumer debt, like real estate and mortgage loans. Consumers often compare the return they could earn on Treasurys to certificates of deposit, money market accounts, corporate bonds and even mortgage-backed securities. So when yields for 10-year T-notes go up, so too do rates for real estate and mortgage debt.

Finally, supply and demand for Treasurys fluctuate with the economic climate. When markets or world events turn tumultuous, investors tend to flock to Treasurys in search of a safe haven. When times are good, though, investors tend to seek out other investments that can provide a more favorable return.

Are 10-year Treasury notes a good investment?

Whether 10-year Treasurys are a good investment for you depends on your investment goal. If your goal is to let your money grow slowly and conservatively over time, Treasury notes are considered a low-risk investment if held to maturity since they’re backed by the U.S. government.

One of the main risks with Treasury notes is what’s known as “opportunity cost”: You could forgo potential profits by investing in T-notes instead of a security with a higher potential return.

» Learn more about long-term investments

How do you buy 10-year Treasury notes?

Treasury notes can be bought in increments of $100 directly from the U.S. government via TreasuryDirect, or through a bank or broker. T-notes can also be purchased bundled together in the form of a Treasury exchange-traded fund.

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The Current 10-Year Treasury Yield Is Above 4%. Here’s Why It Matters - NerdWallet (4)

Do you pay tax on T-notes?

Investors pay federal income taxes but no state or local taxes on T-notes and other Treasurys.

Next Steps

  • How to buy Treasurys

  • Best brokers for bond investing

  • What a brokerage account is and how to open one

  • Yield curve: what It is and why it matters

The Current 10-Year Treasury Yield Is Above 4%. Here’s Why It Matters - NerdWallet (2024)

FAQs

Why is 10 year Treasury yield so high? ›

Behind the 10-year yield's recent rise

Yields on Treasurys, which rise when bond prices fall, largely reflect what investors think the Fed's benchmark short-term rate will average over the life of a bond. They in turn set a floor on mortgage rates and other types of fixed-rate debt.

What does a high yield on a 10 year Treasury mean? ›

The 10-year note is undoubtedly a highly significant benchmark for global financial markets. A rising yield indicates investor confidence in the economy but also suggests higher borrowing costs, potentially slowing economic growth. Conversely, a falling yield may signal economic uncertainty.

What is one downside to investing in Treasuries? ›

Cons of Investing in Treasury Bonds

Interest rate risk: As interest rates ascend, the value of existing bonds with lower interest rates tends to diminish, potentially leading to capital losses if the bonds are sold prior to maturity.

What is the highest the 10 year Treasury yield has been? ›

Historically, the US 10 Year Treasury Bond Note Yield reached an all time high of 15.82 in September of 1981. US 10 Year Treasury Bond Note Yield - data, forecasts, historical chart - was last updated on May 26 of 2024.

What drives the 10 year Treasury yield up? ›

Bottom Line. Many factors like inflation expectations, economic growth and monetary policy are in play in determining yields for 10-year Treasuries.

Why are high Treasury yields bad for stocks? ›

What it means: Higher bond yields could mean bad news for stocks: Bonds compete with stocks for investors' dollars, and when yields go up, equities often go down. That's because if bonds are yielding more than stocks, the bonds are generally more attractive. After all, Treasuries are backed by the US government.

Should you buy bonds when interest rates are high? ›

Should I only buy bonds when interest rates are high? There are advantages to purchasing bonds after interest rates have risen. Along with generating a larger income stream, such bonds may be subject to less interest rate risk, as there may be a reduced chance of rates moving significantly higher from current levels.

What is the safest investment with the highest return? ›

These seven low-risk but potentially high-return investment options can get the job done:
  • Money market funds.
  • Dividend stocks.
  • Bank certificates of deposit.
  • Annuities.
  • Bond funds.
  • High-yield savings accounts.
  • 60/40 mix of stocks and bonds.
May 13, 2024

What is the real 10 year Treasury yield? ›

Basic Info

10 Year Real Treasury Rate is at 2.09%, compared to 2.11% yesterday and 1.48% last year.

Can you lose money investing in US Treasuries? ›

There is virtually zero risk that you will lose principal by investing in T-bonds. There is a risk that you could have earned better money elsewhere. Investing decisions are always a tradeoff between risk and reward.

Why would anyone bother investing in Treasury bills? ›

A Treasury bill, or T-bill, is a short-term debt obligation backed by the U.S. Treasury Department. It's one of the safest places you can save your cash, as it's backed by the full faith and credit of the government. T-bills are auctioned off at a discount and then redeemed at maturity for the full amount.

How do you avoid tax on Treasury bonds? ›

The Treasury gives you two options:
  1. Report interest each year and pay taxes on it annually.
  2. Defer reporting interest until you redeem the bonds or give up ownership of the bond and it's reissued or the bond is no longer earning interest because it's matured.
Dec 12, 2023

Are treasury bills better than CDs? ›

Choosing between a CD and Treasuries depends on how long of a term you want. For terms of one to six months, as well as 10 years, rates are close enough that Treasuries are the better pick. For terms of one to five years, CDs are currently paying more, and it's a large enough difference to give them the edge.

Should I buy 10 year treasury bonds? ›

Coupon payments provide guaranteed income, and your investment will be safe regardless of what happens in the economy or the financial markets. Ten-year notes can offer a compromise between the extremely low payouts on T-bills and the higher risk having to hold onto longer-maturity T-bonds.

Do mortgage rates follow the 10 year Treasury? ›

Fixed-rate mortgages are tied to the 10-year Treasury yield. When that goes up or down, fixed-rate mortgage rates follow suit. The fixed mortgage rate isn't exactly the same as the 10-year yield, however; there's a gap between the two.

Why do Treasury yields rise with inflation? ›

When inflation exists, treasury yields become higher as fixed-income products are not as in demand. Strong economic growth also leads to higher treasury yields.

Why does the 10 year Treasury affect mortgage rates? ›

Why? As a fixed-rate asset, mortgage-backed securities (MBS) are in direct competition with Treasury instruments for investor money. For mortgages to stay competitive in the eyes of investors, the rates on mortgages inherently follow changes in Treasury yields.

What is the 10 year Treasury yield long term forecast? ›

The United States 10 Years Government Bond Yield is expected to be 4.812% by the end of September 2024. It would mean an increase of 40.1 bp, if compared to last quotation (4.411%, last update 21 May 2024 17:15 GMT+0).

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